The Leader Mindset #9

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• Staying Grounded: A Leader’s Guide to Avoiding the …

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Staying Grounded: A Leader’s Guide to Avoiding the Overconfidence Trap

Last week, I asked my LinkedIn network for their opinion about what causes the most leadership failures.

The top answer didn’t surprise me: overconfidence and ego.

Chances are, you’ve worked with a leader like that at some point.

Someone who was absolutely certain they were right—even when the facts said otherwise. Maybe they dismissed others’ ideas, pushed ahead without all the necessary information, or shut down anyone who challenged their thinking.

They acted like they had all the answers, but they couldn’t see the cracks forming until it was too late.

Sound familiar?

The most dangerous leader isn’t the one who lacks knowledge. It’s the one who doesn’t realize what they don’t know. Interestingly, it doesn’t always look the way you’d expect. It rarely shows up as loud arrogance or chest-pounding bravado. More often, it comes across as conviction. As decisiveness. As the ability to move quickly and boldly.

In the moment, that can feel like strong leadership.

But it also creates blind spots. It can silence feedback, shut down dialogue, and lead to mistakes that could have been prevented.

The hardest part?

Most leaders don’t see it in themselves—until the damage is already done.

Why Overconfidence Is Especially Damaging Right Now

We are operating in a time of relentless, unpredictable change. Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation are transforming the way we work at a pace few leaders are fully prepared for. The challenges we face now do not resemble those we’ve tackled before.

And that is exactly why overconfidence is so dangerous today.

When leaders rely too heavily on past success or gut instinct, they risk applying outdated solutions to entirely new problems. In this environment, rigid certainty is not a sign of strength—it’s a liability.

How Overconfidence Shows Up in Leadership

Overconfidence is sneaky—it often looks like confidence on the surface. Confident leaders make informed, intentional decisions. Overconfident leaders push forward without enough perspective, input, or awareness of their limitations.

You might see it in leaders who:

• Assume they understand the full picture without seeking diverse viewpoints

• Rely on past wins to navigate entirely new or uncertain situations

• Avoid feedback because they’re convinced they already have the right answer

• Believe their track record makes them immune to failure

Researchers Don Moore and Paul Healy have identified three common forms of overconfidence that frequently show up in leadership decisions:

• Overestimation – Believing you’re more capable or knowledgeable than you are

• Overplacement – Assuming you’re better than others, without real evidence

• Overprecision – Being too certain that your judgments or predictions are correct

Ironically, the more successful a leader becomes, the more vulnerable they are to these traps. Past achievements can create a false sense of certainty—blinding leaders to the complexity and novelty of current challenges.

Why Leaders Often Miss the Warning Signs

One of the trickiest things about overconfidence is that it hides in plain sight. Most people don’t recognize it until they make a costly mistake.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect helps explain this. People with limited knowledge often overestimate their competence because they don’t know enough to realize what they’re missing. But this is not just a beginner’s problem.

Seasoned leaders can also fall victim to it, especially after years of reinforcement and reward. When leaders start to believe their instincts are always right, they stop asking questions, listening, and learning.

Leadership research from @Hogan Assessments shows arrogance is among the most common derailers. When leaders become defensive or dismissive, they create a culture where truth gets filtered—and that’s when real problems begin.

How to Stay Grounded as a Leader

The antidote to overconfidence isn’t self-doubt—it’s intellectual humility. It’s the willingness to stay curious, challenge your assumptions, and be vulnerable enough to be wrong.

Here are five specific ways to practice that:

1️⃣ Use the “scientist mindset.”

Approach decisions like an experiment, not a verdict. Ask, “What would disprove this idea?” before charging ahead.

2️⃣ Assign a devil’s advocate.

Invite someone you trust to push back on your thinking. Give them permission to challenge you directly—and thank them when they do.

3️⃣ Run a pre-mortem.

Ask your team, “If this fails six months from now, what will have caused it?” Then use those answers to strengthen your plan.

4️⃣ Model open learning.

Say things like, “I changed my mind,” or “I hadn’t thought of it that way.” Show your team that evolving your view is not a weakness—it’s leadership.

5️⃣ Create space for real feedback.

Regularly ask your team or peers: “Where do you think I might be missing something?” Then listen without defending. Reflect and act on what you hear.

If You See Someone Derailing

What if it’s not you, but someone around you showing signs of overconfidence?

Start by assuming positive intent. Most overconfident leaders are not trying to derail—they simply don’t realize they’re off track.

Try this:

Ask questions instead of making accusations.

• “Can I offer a perspective you might not have considered?”

• “What feedback have you heard that we might be overlooking?”

Bring in data.

• Ground your points in facts or patterns others are seeing. This makes it easier to digest without feeling personal.

Model the behavior yourself.

• Be open about what you’ve learned, where you’ve changed course, or when your thinking was wrong.

Courageous, thoughtful feedback can be a gift—especially for leaders others are afraid to challenge.

Final Thought

Overconfidence often looks like leadership—until it doesn’t.

Real leadership is not about having all the answers. It is about staying grounded, asking questions, and evolving with your environment. And in a world that is changing faster than ever, that mindset is not just important—it is essential.

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Andy Noon, PhD

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Thanks for reading. I look forward to seeing you again next week.

Andy