The Leader Mindset #36

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Would You Buy a Million-Dollar House Without an Inspection? Then Why Promote Without Data?

Tell me, who in their right mind would buy a house without reviewing objective data?

You know, things we take for granted like:

• Inspection reports

• Neighborhood safety ratings

• School district quality

• Property value trends

• Even the noise level of the next-door neighbor.

No one would ever spend that kind of money based on a hunch.

Yet that is precisely what many organizations do when making leadership decisions.

A few weeks ago, I led a webinar on how assessments can strengthen succession planning. What struck me most was how many HR leaders already knew their process was not working as well as it could but were not sure what to do differently.

They had the right intentions, but their succession decisions were still driven more by feelings rather than by evidence.

That is risky.

When considering senior leadership roles, these are not small bets. These are million-dollar decisions, sometimes even multi-million-dollar ones.

We would never buy a house or a car without objective data to support our decision. So why do we continue to promote leaders based on gut feel?

The Gut-Feel Trap

Most succession plans appear solid on paper, featuring a few high-potential names, a nine-box grid, and perhaps a development plan or two.

But if you dig deeper, many of those high potentials were chosen for reasons that have more to do with bias than ability.

You have probably seen it:

• The Mini-Me effect, where leaders back people who look or act like them

• The Old Faithful bias, someone loyal and dependable, is rewarded based on their tenure

• The Technical Guru bias, the star technical expert is assumed to be just as good at leading others

The problem is that performance and potential are not the same thing. Research and experience indicate that excelling in one role does not necessarily guarantee success in a higher-level role. Yet many organizations still equate strong performance with leadership readiness.

Why Assessments Matter

Here is where assessments make a difference.

At their core, assessments are structured, objective tools designed to understand an individual’s capabilities, preferences, and potential. They help you see beyond what is visible, such as patterns of thinking, learning agility, or interpersonal style that shape how someone leads.

More importantly, they create consistency. Every candidate is evaluated against the same criteria, allowing HR and leaders to compare apples to apples rather than relying on manager opinions to manager opinions.

Think of it like this. When you are spending a million dollars on a house, you would not just walk through the front door, glance around, and decide it feels right. You would order an inspection. You would want objective data that validates what you see.

Succession planning deserves the same level of rigor!

Where Assessments Fit

Assessments do not replace a leader's judgment. They sharpen it.

In a typical succession process, managers identify potential successors, HR consolidates the names, and talent reviews follow. Assessments add a layer of objectivity that validates or challenges those judgments.

Here are a number of assessment types that can add value to your process:

• Personality inventories reveal traits linked to leadership effectiveness, such as ambition, adaptability, or composure under pressure

• Cognitive and critical thinking tests assess an individual's ability to handle complexity and make informed decisions

• Simulations and work samples demonstrate how leaders behave in response to real-world challenges

• 360-degree feedback tools build self-awareness by showing leaders how others experience their leadership

I encourage you to work with an I/O Psychologist to help identify and implement the most appropriate assessments for your unique needs.

A Case in Point

A few years ago, I worked with a company designing succession plans for several VP-level roles. The CEO and CHRO were confident in their top candidates.

One manager had rated an employee as ready now for promotion, noting strong strategic thinking, high drive, and excellent team leadership.

When we examined the assessment data, the picture changed. The individual scored well on execution and tolerance for ambiguity but showed limited strength in strategic thinking.

After discussing the results with the manager, we realized what had happened. The leader had been confusing strategic execution with strategic thinking. Once that distinction was clear, the manager could see the gap and lowered the potential rating, creating a development plan to address the need.

This is an example of the power of assessment data. It does not undercut your leaders’ judgment. It provides new insights that help make better decisions.

Don’t Leave Your Most Critical Promotion Decisions to Chance

Assessments are not about taking control away from managers. They give leaders and HR the information needed to make smarter, more evidence-based decisions.

The next time your organization is preparing to make a major promotion, pause and ask: Are we basing this on evidence or instinct?

If you want succession decisions to be as rigorous as any multi-million-dollar investment, use valid, well-constructed assessments. They are not just nice to have. They are essential for protecting your organization by identifying leaders who can succeed.

If you are interested in the webinar that this article is based on, you can find it here:

 2026 is just a few months away. If you have goals to integrate assessments into your leadership development and/or succession planning strategies, we should talk. Reach out today to book an appointment. [email protected]

Andy Noon, PhD

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Thanks for reading and look forward to seeing you again next week.

Andy